“一带一路”背景下我国未来经济增长潜力研究

Study on the Growth Potential of China's Economy under the Background of “The Belt and Road”

近几年随着全球经济放缓、中国国内经济结构调整和去产能"供给侧"改革,中国经济增速经历了持续较大幅度的下滑。为推动经济增长,新时期国家提出"一带一路"发展战略。结合"一带一路"战略,从区域经济发展和经济结构调整的视角研究中国未来经济增长的潜力,认为地区经济差距进一步缩小、未来城镇化水平进一步提高和经济结构继续优化调整是中国未来经济增长的三大潜在力量。中国经济增长将会继续从"投资拉动型"向"消费拉动型"转变,未来中国经济增速仍将保持世界领先,不宜过于低估中国未来的经济增长前景。

In recent years, with the global economic slowdown, the adjustment of domestic economic structure and the supply side reform, China＇s economic growth has experienced a huge sustained decline. In order to promote economic growth, China put forward the development strategy of ＂The Belt and Road＂ for the new period. This paper studies China＇s future economic growth potential from the perspectives of regional economic development and the adjustment of e- conomic structure. It is found that further narrowing of the regional economic gap, improving the urbanization level and the optimization and adjustment of the economic structure are the three po- tential forces of China＇s economic growth in the future. China＇s economic growth will continue to shift from ＂investment driven＂ to ＂consumption driven＂. China＇s economic growth will remain the leading place in the future, so China＇s future economic growth prospects cannot be underestimated.