张家口市2013年两次寒潮天气过程分析

Analysis of Two Cold Wave Processes in Zhangjiakou City in 2013

通过对2013年秋冬季影响张家口市的两次寒潮天气过程进行对比分析,结果发现:两次寒潮的源地、高空槽型以及冷空气中心强度不同,降温幅度也不同;本地6项经验指标定性预报寒潮准确率较高,但不能表征寒潮的强弱;最低气温历史评估和温度平流垂直结构变化两个新经验指标正在投入业务使用,有待后期工作进一步验证。

Through the comparative analysis of the two cold wave processes in Zhangjiakou City in the autunm and winter seasons of 2013, it was found that due to the different sources, high-level trough types and cold air center strength between the two cold wave processes, the temperature drop ranges were also differ- ent. Though the accuracy of qualitative prediction for cold wave was high, the cold wave strength could not be charac- terized. There are two new empirical in- dicators, i.e. historical evaluation for minimum temperatures and vertical structure change for temperature advee- tion being put into operation, which are needed to be further verified in the later work.