清水沟流路期间黄河三角洲区潮波运动的模拟和预测

A SIMULATION AND PREDICTION ABOUT TIDAL MOVEMENT OFF THE HUANGHE RIVER DELTA WHEN THE HR PASSES THROUGH THE QINGSHUIGOU STREAM OUTLET

为了探讨黄河三角洲附近潮波运动的变化特征,乐肯堂等（1995）用二维数值模式模拟了1855—1984年该海区的潮汐和潮流的分布变化,并着重考察了M2和S2分潮的无潮点,以及规则全日潮区的位置变化。乐肯堂等（1995）的研究表明,黄河尾闾的摆动以及由此而造成的黄河三角洲之进退,是该海区潮波特征发生变化的主要外因。

The influence of Huanghe (Yellow) River Delta (HRD) changes on the tidal wave movement in its adjacent area was studied by using a 2D numerical model. Previous study (Le et al. , 1995) showed that in modern times the HRD had silted up forward by 2530. 4km2 during the period 1855 to 1984. The changes of the Huanghe River Estuary (HRE) had significant influence on the tidal wave movement in the Bohai Sea. Due to the unceasing changes of the HRE in the past 100-odd years, some basic features of tidal wave movement have been varying with the HRD development. Although the tail of the Huanghe (Yellow) River (HR) has been relatively stable when the HR passes through the Qingshuigou Stream Outlet (QSO) since 1976, the HRD changes have influenced significantly the tidal wave movement. The main results from this study are as follows. (1) The regular diurnal region off the HRD was the largest in 1855 and has been gradually decreasing since then. If the QSO keeps its tendency, it will probably vanish in the future. (2)The M2 and S2 amphidromic point locations and their corresponding amplitudes off st. Wuhaozhuang vary as the HRD develops. The locations of the M2 and S2 amphidromic points have been very close to the coast and their amplitudes have become bigger and bigger since 1855. The M2 amplitude at its amphidromic point location now is greater than 3 cm and the location slightly moved southeastward from 1976 to 1992. (3) The high speed region with probable maximum speed of > 120 cm/s varies with the development of the HRD from 1855 to 1976, but has not changed much since then. (4) It can be foreseen that if the QSO keeps on going its way for the coming decades, the amphidromic zones of constituents M2 and S2 will decrease gradually and even disappear. (5) It is noteworthy that the amplitued of diurnal constituent m1 along the northern coast of the HRD has slightly incrased since the HR tail moved from the Diaokouhe Stream Outlet to the QSO in 1976.