基于广义人口结构的区域劳动生产率差异分析

Analysis of the Difference in Regional Labor Productivity Based on General Population Structure

人口结构变动通过作用于物质资本和人力资本积累影响区域劳动生产率。本文采用中国1993—2014年29个省份的面板数据,对从人口年龄、性别、城乡分布以及受教育程度四个方面所衡量的广义人口结构对区域劳动生产率的影响进行了实证研究。结果发现,人口结构对劳动生产率的影响在东、中、西部三大区域存在较大差异,其中少儿抚养比下降、老年抚养比上升带来的正向影响仅在东部和西部地区显著,人口城镇化为东部地区带来正向效应,却对西部地区产生抑制作用。高中教育对劳动生产率没有明显的推动作用,大专及以上高等教育则带来了正向影响。研究还发现,性别比例在中部地区导致劳动生产率呈现倒"U"型的变动过程,而其在西部地区则表现为"U"型的变动过程。由此,隐含的政策含义是:提高劳动生产率、缩小地区差异,有必要进一步放开生育政策,提高女性劳动力占比,均衡男女边际生产率,积极推进欠发达地区就近城镇化。

The change of population structure will influence regional labor productivity by acting on capital accumulation of materials and intellectuals. This paper has carried on the empirical research from general population structure which is measured by people＇s age, sex, urban and rural distribution as well as education attainment by adopting Chinese panel data from 1993 to 2014. The research shows that the influence that population structure is quite different between eastern region, middle region and western region. It says that the positive effect caused by the decreasing of children＇ s dependency ratio and increasing of elderly dependency ratio is obvious only in eastern region and western region. Urbanization of population has brought benefits to eastern region, but inhibited the labor productivity in western region. As for education attainment, senior high school education can not obviously stimulate labor productivity. Higher education in junior college or above will bring positive effect. The study also found that sex ratio has caused the result that the change process of labor productivity in middle region is a reversed U, but in western region, it is a positive U. As a result, it is necessary to generalize birth policy deeply, promote the ratio of female labor force, balance marginal productivity between men and women, and promote the urbanization process in developing areas if we want to stimulate labor productivity and narrow regional disparities.