市场制度、人口红利和中国的出口增长

Market Institution,Demographic Dividend and China's Export Growth

基于1978—2014年中国30个省份的面板数据,考察了市场制度、人口红利及两者交互项对中国出口增长的影响。研究发现,对中国总体和东、中部地区而言,市场制度和人口红利促进了出口增长;对西部地区而言,市场制度和人口红利抑制了出口增长;其中中国总体和东、西部地区市场制度水平的提高促进了人口红利的转变,而中部地区市场制度水平的提高反而抑制了人口红利的转变。分时期回归发现,市场制度对出口的影响趋势符合"N"型曲线,人口红利对出口的影响趋势符合"M"型曲线。市场制度对出口的影响程度始终大于人口红利对出口的影响程度。

Based on panel data of China＇ s 30 provinces during the year 1978--2014, this article analyzes the effect of market institution, demographic dividend and the interaction of these two terms on China＇ s export growth. The result shows that for overall China and China＇ s eastern and middle regions the market institution and demographic dividend contributed to export growth. In the western region, the market institution and demographic dividend inhibited export growth. The increasing market institution of the overall, eastern and western regions improve the promotion of a shift in the demographic dividend, and the increasing market institution of the middle region inhibited the transformation of the demographic dividend. Sub-period regression found that the market institution trends affecting exports in line with ＂N＂ export trend in line with ＂M＂ curve. The shaped curve, the impact of demographic dividend on impact of market level on exports is always greater than the demographic dividend impact on exports.