高峰还是高原?——中国人口老龄化形态及其对养老金体系影响的再思考

Peak or Plateau?:The Trend of Population Ageing and Rethinking of Its Influences on the Pension System in China

人口老龄化发展趋势的形态决定着整个经济社会政策应对的策略选择。目前关于中国人口老龄化趋势发展形态研究的一个主要观点是中国将在21世纪50年代前后达到人口老龄化高峰,这一概念无法准确表述中国人口老龄化发展趋势的真实形态。中国人口老龄化确实将在21世纪50年代前后达到最严重的时期,但并不会在此之后发生逆转,而是将长期持续下去,因此中国人口老龄化从长期来看将进入老龄化高原时期。这一判断决定了人口老龄化对中国养老金体系的影响是长期的,必须用战略眼光重构中国三支柱的养老金体系,并辅之以参量改革,以应对人口老龄化的长期影响。

The shape of the trend of population ageing determines the strategy selection of the whole economic and social policy. At present, one of the main opinions of population ageing trend is that the population ageing will arrive at a peak in about 2050s in China. However, this concept cannot express the real shape of the population ageing trend of China. Actually, the population ageing in China is going to be the most serious period in 2050s, but it cannot reverse after that. The high-level population ageing will last during the end of the 21 century, and population ageing plateau maybe a better concept. This judgement determines that the influences of population ageing on the pension system will be long-range reconstruct the three-pillars reform at the same time In order to deal with the pension system through challenge of population ageing, China should strategic point of view and do some parameter