碳交易对二氧化碳排放抑制作用分析——基于江浙沪地区的实证研究

Empirical Research on the Inhibition of Carbon Emissions by Carbon Trading——Based on Jiangsu,Zhejiang and Shanghai Region area

以2015年3月~2016年11月上海环境能源交易所每个月的碳交易总额和江浙沪的平均工业增加值为样本,实证研究了以遏制二氧化碳排放为目的碳交易市场与实体经济发展的相互作用关系。结果表明:江浙沪地区的平均工业增加值与碳交易总额存在长期稳定的协整关系,且Granger因果检验显示江浙沪地区平均工业增加值与碳交易总额互为Granger原因。说明现今实体经济的发展必须要考虑二氧化碳的排放成本,碳交易市场的产生对二氧化碳排放具有抑制作用。

By taking carbon trading volume of Shanghai climate exchange andaverage industrial added value of Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai region as the study object, employing the relevant statistics from 2015.3 to 2016.11 ,this pa- per studiedis dedicated to researching the interrelation of carbon trading market aimed at limiting carbon dioxide emis- sions and the real economy development. The results showed thatthere is a cointegration relationship between average Industrial added valueand carbon trading volumein Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai region. In addition, the Granger Causality test turns out that average Industrial added value and carbon trading volumeof Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shang- hai regionare mutual Granger reasons. The resultindicated that the development of the real economy must take the cost of carbon dioxide emissions into account and carbon trading markethas an inhibitory effect on carbon dioxide e- mlSslon.