面向医疗可达性的引力模型可获性优化

An Improved Gravity Model for Health Care Accessibility from the Aspect of Availability

提出了一个从可获性方面优化的引力模型,其优化之处在于对医疗需求强度的表达,即将原始引力模型中对每个医院的医疗需求强度从人口势能改为所有居民地来该医院的就医人口数。该就医人口数由各居民地的社会人口学、经济学指标数据和医院信息,经过多元有序logit回归模型估算得到。通过考虑个人就医行为,新的需求强度指标能更贴切地反映对医疗服务的需求竞争,并从可获性方面改进医疗可达性的计算方法。

This paper presents an improved gravity model. whose improvement focuses on the expression of demand in tensity from the availability aspect. Based on the gravity model, the full population gravity is modified to consider the population only seeking lreatment, which represents the health care demand intensity for every hospital. The popula- tion seeking treatment is estimated by an ordinal nmhinomial logit model considering demographic, sociological, economic habitation factors and hospital information. By taking the be- havior of individuals seeking health care into consideration, the new demand intensity factor will reflects the competition for health care services more realistically and improves acces- sibility from the aspect of availability.