金融高杠杆业务模式、潜在风险与去杠杆路径研究

High Leveraged Financial Business Models, Potential Risks and the De-leveraging Approaches

"去杠杆"是供给侧结构性改革的一项重要内容。伴随着社会资金"脱实向虚"、资产泡沫过度膨胀等突出问题,金融领域的"去杠杆"成为了供给侧改革"去杠杆"的主要着力点。当前的金融高杠杆属于宏观的系统杠杆,表现为金融体系资产负债表的快速膨胀,实质上是货币信用机制的再造。本文首先就此轮金融高杠杆的发展成因在业务模式及内在动因上进行了微观解析,再就金融高杠杆与金融体系脆弱性的逻辑关系进行分析,最后对金融"去杠杆"的现有路径与未来的政策框架进行归纳和展望。本文的研究表明:金融高杠杆主要源于同业资金流转链条,依靠同业存单、同业理财、银行委外与表外业务的比较优势,形成了资金空转的套利机制;金融杠杆的快速上升潜藏着系统性风险,导致广义货币增速被低估,同时会引发交易性资产价格波动。逐步出台的金融"去杠杆"监管政策,短期内强化了监管,去杠杆初见成效;但长期看,未来应该着力于制度化监管长效机制的建设。下一步,应持续地改革和完善适应现代金融市场发展的金融监管框架,实现金融监管的统一协调与金融风险的全覆盖。

＂Deleveraging＂ is an important part of the supply side structural reform. With the prominent problems such as social funds distracted from the real economy and excessive build-ups of asset bubbles, the ＂deleveraging＂ in the financial sector has become the main focus. Financial leverage is a macro systemic leverage, represented by the rapid expansion of the balance sheet of the financial system, which in essence is a credit- money creation mechanism. This paper first analyzes the causes of financial high leverage in terms of their business models and internal motivations, then analyzes the logical relationship between financial high leverage and the fragility of the financial system, finally analyzes the existing path and future policy framework. This paper concludes that the current high financial leverage is mainly due to inter-bank businesses including inter- bank deposit, inter-bank financial management, bank outsourcing and off-balance sheet business, which form speculative motives and actions. The rapid rise in financial leverage hides systemic risk as the broad money growth was significantly underestimated, leading to the spread of asset price bubbles. The existing financial deleveraging policies are preliminarily effective in the short run. However, in the long run, the key is to build up an institutionalized regulatory system. We should consistently reform the regulatory system in consistent to the modern financial market development so that to achieve cooperated financial regulations and full financial risk coverage.