“天赋异禀”、“熟能生巧”还是“日久生情”——基于中国证券分析师预测能力的经验证据

GIFTED,SKILLED OR ASSOCIATED——Empirical Evidence on the Forecasts of Securities Analysts in China

本文选取2001—2013年证券分析师的预测数据作为研究样本,研究证券分析师的预测能力随时间变化的现象及机理。实证检验表明:(1)分析师的预测能力随着经验积累而显著提高;(2)"新财富"最佳分析师较之于一般分析师并未表现出更强的预测能力(即并不存在"天赋异禀");(3)证券分析师预测能力随经验积累而提高并非由于研究能力的提升(即"熟能生巧"),而是通过所在证券公司的平台与所跟进的公司建立了良好的合作关系(即"日久生情")。本文不仅丰富了关于影响证券分析师预测能力因素的相关实证研究,同时创造性地进一步剖析了证券分析师预测能力随经验积累提高的内在机理,其结论对于理解分析师学习成长机制、促进中小投资者保护以及推动中国证券市场理性发展具有重要意义。

Using earnings forecasts provided by security analysts ranging from 2001 to 2013, this pa per concentrates on the phenomenon that security analysts improve their performance with experience. Empirical tests come to three main conclusions： Firstly, security analysts do significantly improve their performance with experience. Secondly, those ＇new fortune＇ honored analysts perform no better than or- dinary ones, namely, there is no evidence of gift difference. Thirdly, the observed performance improve ment attributes to the close association between security companies and the listed firms （i. e. ＇associat- ed＇） rather than to the enhancement of ability to predict （i. e. ＇skilled＇）. The research not only enriches related empirical studies on the performance improvement of analysts, but also sheds light on the inner mechanism of the observation, which is of great significance to understanding the learning process of the analysts, protecting individual investors and constructing a rational security market in China.