资源型城市发展系统耦合协调研究——以武安市为例

Research on Coupling Coordination of Resource-Based City Development System in Wu'an City

资源型城市转型势在必行,文章旨在分析资源型城市发展系统"经济-社会-生态"的耦合关系,为城市协调发展提供参考借鉴。以武安市为研究区,构建评价指标体系,运用耦合协调度模型分析现状,以灰色GM(1,1)模型预测未来趋势。结果表明:(1)2007年武安市耦合协调度为中度失调,2008—2010年好转至轻度失调,2011—2014年除2013外均处于濒临协调,经济发展、环境恶化、社会响应敏感反映出城市发展系统三大组分的协调共进。(2)灰色模型预测当地2015—2019年仍将处于濒临失调,耦合协调水平提升迟缓,表明资源型城市发展系统各组分间虽然耦合更紧密,但协调水平提升空间仍较大。(3)资源型城市要强化"经济-社会-生态"相协调的发展观念,实现可持续增长。

Resource-based urban transformation is imperative. This paper aims to analyze the resource-based urban development system ＂economic - social - ecological＂ coupling relationship for urban coordinated development reference. The evaluation index system was constructed by using Wu＇an City as the research area, and the present situation was analyzed by the coupled coordination degree model. The gray GM（1, 1） model was used to predict the future trend. The results show that： （1） in 2007, the coupling degree of Wu＇an was moderately maladjusted, and in 2008-2010, it improved to the mild disorder. In 2011-2014, except 2013, they were on the verge of coordination, economic development, environmental deterioration and social response. The three components of the urban development system are coordinated. （2） The gray model predicts that the local 2015-2019 will remain on the verge of imbalance, and the coupling coordination level will be slow, which indicates that the coordination level of the resource-based urban development system is still closer. （3） Resource-based cities need to strengthen the ＂economic - social - ecological＂ coordinated development concept and achieve sustainable growth.