江苏省森林碳储量的影响因素研究:基于社会经济视角

Study on the Influence Factors on Forest Carbon Storage in Jiangsu Province from Social Economy Viewpoints

森林植被在改善生态环境,维持区域碳氧平衡等方面发挥了重要作用,但影响区域森林碳储量的社会经济因素尚不清楚。江苏是中国东部沿海经济大省,生态环境承载压力较大。文章运用因子连续函数法对江苏省森林碳储量进行了估算,基于51个县(市)的样本数据,对影响森林碳储量的社会经济因素进行了探讨。结果表明:2005—2010年,江苏省森林碳储量由25.90×106 t C增加到46.16×106 t C,森林碳"汇"效应显著,但各区域的碳储量变化不均衡;森林面积和林业产值对森林碳储量的影响显著为正,地区生产总值和公路里程数对其影响显著为负,人口因素的影响不显著;在江苏地区生产总值仍将保持一定时期惯性增长的条件下,增加森林面积和林业产值,提升森林的经营技术水平,对于提高江苏的森林碳储量具有重要作用。

The forest vegetation has a vital role to play in improving ecological environment and maintaining regional ecological balance. Jiangsu Province is located in east coast of China with advanced economy and fragile ecological environment. However, it is not clear that how the social-economic factors affect the regional forest carbon storage. This paper calculates the forest carbon storage of Jiangsu Province by means of continuous functions for BEF （biomass expansion factor）, discusses the influencing factors of forest carbon storage based on 51 sample counties from the view of social economics. The results show that the forest carbon storage of Jiangsu increased from 25.90×10^6 tC in 2005 to 46.16×10^6 tC in 2010, which possessed significant carbon absorbing effect but with imbalance among the changes of carbon storage in different regions. The forest area and forestry production have a significant positive effect on forest carbon storage, while GDP and road-mileage have a significant negative effect, and demographic factor has no significant influence. Under the vested technological and economical condition, the measures such as expanding forest area and production, improving the productive and technological level of forest, are beneficial to enhance the forest growing stock and its carbon sink.