IT领域新兴技术的演进及其可视化分析

Evolution and Visualization Analysis of IT Emerging Technologies

[目的/意义]深度剖析Gartner新兴技术成熟度曲线图的内涵,梳理近年来信息技术领域的新兴技术,以可视化方式清晰呈现其演进历程,为识别、监测、跟踪和展示信息技术领域的新兴技术及其趋势提供了新的方法与角度。[方法/过程]根据近八年(2009至2016年)Gartner新兴技术成熟度曲线图完成了信息技术领域新兴技术的项次数量、成熟度状况以及普及年预期等基础统计数据与可视化图。基于同源原则,对历年新兴技术进行合并,统计出高频的同源技术,并以可视化图直观地呈现其动态演进历程。[结果/结论]基于Gartner新兴技术成熟度曲线图与Tableau可视化软件,成功识别出七项高频新兴技术并展示出其演进历程:增强现实、人类技能增进、量子计算、自然语言问答、脑机接口、网格网络-传感器;其他值得关注的新兴技术还包括:3D打印、云计算、语音技术等。

[ Purpose/Significance ] This paper introduces the notion of emerging technologies and status quo of its research, concludes the emerging technologies in the field of information technology in recent years and visualizes the evolution processes of these technologies. [ Method/process] Based on Gartner Emerging Technologies Hype Cycles from 2009 to 2016, statistics and visualizations related to the e- merging technologies in Information Sciences are done. Finally, cognate and similar emerging technologies are combined. Visualizations of the high-frequency technologies are provided so as to analyze their gradual progresses efficiently. [ Result/Conclusion] Based on Gart- ner Emerging Technologies Hype Cycles and the software Tableau, this paper successfully identifies seven high-frequency technologies, including augmented reality, human augmentation, quantum computing, natural language question, computer-brain interface, and Mesh Networks-Sensor. Some other technologies worth noticing include 3D printing, cloud computing, speech technology, etc.