深圳市2013-2015年流感样病例时空聚集性分析研究

Time-space study on influenza-like illness in Shenzhen,2013-2015

目的分析2013-2015年深圳市流感流行特点和空间分布特征,为往后深圳市流感的预防和控制工作提供决策依据。方法收集深圳市2013-2015年哨点医院(学校)上报的流感样病例(influenza-like illness,ILI)监测资料,采用回顾性时空聚集性分析方法探讨流感时空分布特征。结果 2013-2015年深圳市0~14岁年龄组ILI数占比较高,构成比为73.20%;流感全年有两个高峰,出现在3~7月和12月~次年2月;运用时空聚集性分析可探测出深圳市ILI发病聚集情况,聚集时间与描述性分析的ILI发病变化趋势基本吻合。结论深圳的流感活动在夏季和冬季表现活跃,0~岁年龄组是ILI主要人群。利用ILI资料进行时空聚集性分析能够及时探测疾病异常聚集,对流感的防控工作具有重要意义。

Objective To analyze the epidemic and spatial characteristics of influenza in Shenzhen during 2013 - 2015, and to provide decision-making evidence for the prevention and control of influenza in Shenzhen. Methods Influenza-like illness（ILI） data were collected from sentinel hospital or school in Shenzhen during 2013 -2015. Spatial-temporal scan statistic were utilized to analyze the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of influenza. Results Age 0-14 year group was the main part of ILI patients from 2013 to 2015 （accounting for 73.20% ）. There are two peaks for ILI% in each year,one from March to July,the other from December to February. The incidence of ILI could be detected by temporal-spatial scanning statistics, which the aggregating time was consistent with the descriptive analysis of ILI. Conclusions ILI circulating peak mainly focuses in summer and winter, and 0- year group is the main part of ILI patients. Using spatialtemporal scan statistic can detect the abnormal cluster of ILI in time ,which will be great significance to the prevention and control of influenza.