基于灰色层次分析法的硝基胍喷雾干燥系统风险评价

Risk Assessment of Spray Drying Nitroguanidine Based on Gray Analytic Hierarchy Process Method

硝基胍是易燃、易爆、有毒性物质,其喷雾干燥过程中固有风险较高,因此开发硝基胍喷雾干燥系统运行的风险评价技术、规范监管系统安全作业条件、完善防护设施并提高该系统的安全性非常必要。首先通过研究硝基胍喷雾干燥系统的结构、工艺流程及运行情况,结合层次分析法建立了硝基胍喷雾干燥系统风险评价指标体系;再通过指标间两两比较和方根法确定各评价指标的权重值;最后结合专业评价人员的分析结果,运用灰色层次分析法确定各指标的评价权向量,并对硝基胍喷雾干燥系统运行风险进行综合评价。评价结果表明:建立的评价指标体系以及确定的各指标权重可靠,且由指标权重、灰色评价矩阵及赋值向量计算得到该系统的综合评价值为74.77,根据定义的安全性等级,目标硝基胍喷雾干燥系统的现有运行安全等级为中等,应加强安全防护和监管。

Nitroguanidine is inflammable,explosive and toxic,so the process of nitroguanidine spray drying is risky.Therefore,it is quite necessary to develop the risk assessment technology of the system operation,standardize supervising system safety operation conditions,optimize protection facilities and enhance the security of nitro guanidine spray drying system.Firstly,studying the structure,technological process and operation of the nitroguanidine spray drying system, this paper establishes the evaluation index system for risk assessment of nitroguanidine spray drying system with the analytic hierarchy process method.Then,the paper determines the weight value of each index by pairwise comparison and integral method.Finally,combined with the analysis results of professional evaluation,this paper applies the Gray Analytic Hierarchy Process （GAHP） method to determining the weight vector of each index,and comprehensively assess the operation risk of the nitroguanidine spray drying system.The evaluation results indicate that the evaluation index system and each index weight are reliable.Meanwhile,the comprehensive evaluation value of the spray drying system is 74.77,which is calculated by the index weight,gray evaluation matrix and valuation vector.According the definition by the paper,the security level of the spray drying system is medium,which should be strengthened in security protection and supervision.