基于宏观计量经济面板数据模型的我国交通事故发生规律研究

Laws of Traffic Accidents in Eight Provinces and Cities of China Based on the Macro-econometric Panel Data Model

从经济发展水平、人口数量、汽车保有量和道路条件等宏观因素入手,分析了我国8个省市不同经济发展条件下,人均GDP与千人汽车保有量、万车死亡人数、十万人口死亡人数和人均道路里程之间的关系,并选取万车死亡人数作为因变量,人均GDP、千人汽车保有量和人均道路里程作为自变量,以科布-道格拉斯生产函数为基础,建立了基于计量经济学的固定效应面板数据模型,并对我国交通事故发生规律进行了模拟分析。结果表明:模型拟合效果较好,相关系数R2为0.957 1,各项因素均表现显著,模型较好地反映了我国2003年之后8省市的交通事故宏观规律。

From the macro factors such as economic development level,population,car ownership and road conditions,this paper analyzes the relationship between GDP per capita and car ownership per 1,000 people,number of deaths per 10,000 people,number of deaths per 100,000 people and road mileage per capita in eight provinces and cities of China,which are under different conditions of economic development.Then,taking number of deaths per 10,000 people as the dependent variable,and the other three variables as the independent variables,the paper builds the macroeconometric panel data model with fixed effect,based on CobbDouglas production function.The results show that R2 of the model is 0.9571 and the fitting parameters are all significant,which reveals that the model reflects the macroscopic laws of traffic accidents in the eight provinces and cities in China since 2003.