气候变化背景下江南地区人体舒适度时空分布特征

Temporal and Spatial Distribution Characteristics of Human Comfort Degree:In Yangtze River Regions Under Climate Change

为定量评价江南地区人体舒适度时空演变特征,本研究基于江南地区1961—2011年434个常规气象观测站逐日相对湿度、平均气温资料,利用人体舒适度指数模型系统分析了江南地区人体舒适度季节变化及空间分布特征,并进行相应的风险区划。结果表明:(1)除夏季外,江南地区全年及各季节人体舒适度值空间分布由南向北呈现逐渐减小的带状分布。(2)研究发现江南地区舒适日、不舒适日由南到北逐渐减少,极不舒适日呈现明显相反的趋势。(3)江南地区全年及各季节人体舒适度值分别以0.302/10 a、0.162/10 a、0.211/10 a、0.355/10 a、0.484/10 a上升,全年及春、秋、冬舒适感逐渐增加,而夏季舒适感显著下降。(4)全年及春、秋、冬人体舒适度值均具有明显的突变特征,突变点约在20世纪80年代末,后期总体上表现为上升趋势,气候变化在一定程度上有利于全年及春、秋、冬舒适度增加,减少了夏季人体舒适感。该研究结果可为江南地区人居环境决策、旅游气候资源综合开发利用及旅游气象服务保障提供科学的依据。

To quantitatively evaluate the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of human comfort degreein Yangtze River regions, based on daily relative humidity and average temperature data from 434 conventionalweather observation stations from 1961 to 2011, using human comfort index model, we systematically analyzedthe seasonal variation and spatial distribution of human comfort degree in these regions and conducted acorresponding risk zoning. The results showed that：（1） except summer, human comfort degree value for thewhole year and other seasons showed significant decrease in zonal distribution from south to north;（2）comfortable day and uncomfortable day gradually decreased from south to north, while very uncomfortable dayshowed a significant reverse trend;（3） the value of human comfort degree of the whole year and the four seasonsrose with the rate of 0.302/10 a, 0.162/10 a, 0.211/10 a, 0.355/10 a and 0.484/10 a, respectively; the humancomfort degree of the whole year as well as spring, autumn and winter gradually increased, but decreasedsignificantly in summer;（4） human comfort value of the whole year and spring, autumn and winter had obviousmutation characteristics, the mutated point occurred in the late 1980 s, showing an upward trend in the latterpart, to a certain degree, climate change increased the human comfort degree of the whole year and spring,autumn and winter, reduced human comfort degree in summer. The results provide a basis for habitat environmental decision-making, comprehensive development and utilization of tourism climate resources andguarantee of tourism meteorological service in Yangtze River regions.