吉林省主要粮食作物生产风险评价

Production Risk Evaluation of Main Crops in Jilin

充分认识吉林省主要粮食作物生产面临的风险,为稳定粮食产量和保障国家粮食安全提供参考。以县级行政单元为研究对象,在运用直线滑动平均法对作物单产进行趋势模拟的基础上,运用非参数信息扩散模型对吉林省玉米、水稻和大豆3种主要粮食作物的生产风险进行了评估。结果表明:不同类型作物生产所面临的风险大小不同,单产损失风险从大到小依次为大豆、玉米、水稻;西北部地区县域的风险普遍较大,其次是东南角地区,而中部地区县域的风险相对较小;吉林省玉米、水稻和大豆3种作物单产损失率30%以上的概率较小。

This study aims to understanding main crops＇ production risk in Jilin Province, and provide areference for stabilizing food production and ensuring national food security. Linear sliding average method andnon-parametric information diffusion model were used to evaluate production risk of soybean, rice and maize atcounty level. The results showed that different crops had different production risks, and the risk degree of perunit area yield was in a decreasing order of soybean, maize and rice. Areas had higher production risks mainlydistributed in northwest Jilin, followed by southeast Jilin, and lower risks were mainly found in central Jilin.Per unit area yield loss ratio of soybean, rice and maize over 30% was small in Jilin Province.