庆阳市污染天气预报思路的建立

The Establishment of Pollution Weather Prediction Method in Qingyang

为了提高庆阳市空气污染预报水平,利用多年环境空气质量和气象观测资料,分析各气象因子对空气污染指数API的影响,采用逐步回归的方法建立预报方程。结果表明:污染天气主要出现在冬季,其次为春季。冬季的API与除稳定度外的其余气象因子相关性较好,春、夏、秋、冬四季以及全年的API与温度、气压、降水和不稳定能量的相关性最好。建立的预报方程对夏、秋、冬三季和全年的预报效果较为准确,而对春季预报效果相对较差。实际预报中再结合具体污染源监测和相似天气分析,最终确定庆阳市本地污染天气预报的综合评估结果。本研究为庆阳市污染天气过程的预警、预测及其综合防治提供科学依据。

To improve the accuracy of atmospheric pollution forecast in Qingyang, we analyzed the effects of each meteorological parameter on the Air Pollutant Index （API） by utilizing the environmental air quality and meteorological data, and established a prediction equation by using the stepwise regression method. The results showed that： the polluted weather mainly occurred in winter, secondly in spring; in winter, the API had a relatively high correlation with the meteorological parameters except the atmospheric stability data; for spring, summer, autumn, winter and the whole year data, the API had a higher correlation with air temperature, atmospheric pressure, precipitation and instability energy than other meteorological parameters. The equation calculated results were comparatively accurate for atmospheric pollution forecast in summer, autumn, winter and the whole year, but had a poor accuracy in spring. In the actual prediction, we should combine the analysis of specific pollution source monitoring and similar weather to ascertain the comprehensive assessment of the atmospheric pollution weather in Qingyang. This study could provide a basis for early warning, forecast and integrated control of the air pollution process.