基于灰色关联分析的边疆城市旅游业发展研究——以满洲里市为例

Based on the Grey Correlation Analysis of Frontier City Tourism Development Research——Taking the Manzhouli as an Example

城市旅游系统中各因素关系存在明显的灰色性,基于灰色系统理论的灰色关联分析方法可以有效测算旅游发展影响因素之间的关联程度。以满洲里市为代表的边疆城市,旅游产业在国民经济中的占有重要地位,对于推动边疆城市开放发展具有举足轻重的作用。选取满洲里市旅游业进入规模发展期的2003年度到2015年度的旅游业相关指标,根据灰色关联分析的测算,明确了"边疆"特质是满洲里市塑造旅游核心吸引物的基础;可进入性决定了满洲里市旅游市场规模;旅游投资多元化拓展了满洲里市旅游消费市场;游客消费需求受国内外客源地和目的地经济环境双重作用。

Relations between the factors of urban tourism system exist obvious gray, gray correlation analysis method based on grey system theory can effectively measure the tourism development of correlation degree between the influencing factors. Manchuria city as the representative of the border cities, tourism industry in the national economy occupies an important position, plays an important role in promoting the development of the border cities. Select the tourism industry related indicators of Manchuria , entering the development scale of the 2003 year to 2015 year, according to the calculation of grey relation tourism in frontier place, Analysis opportunities and the future development of tourism industry. analysis, clear advantages and disadvantages of developing challenges facing the future, in order to grasp the direction of