面向海空战场的随队协同编队威胁评估模型

Threat Assessment Model of Escort Coordination Formation Facing Air and Naval Battlefield

针对随队协同编队威胁评估的复杂性,从敌我对抗的角度出发,提出贝叶斯网络的评估方法,解决从单一角度和状态进行威胁评估的不足。针对评估因素的不确定,给出模糊化的处理思路。同时,采用贝叶斯估计法确定评估网络的条件概率表,克服专家直接给出条件概率表的缺陷。最后,实例仿真验证了评估模型的有效性。

Aiming at the complexity of threat assessment of escort coordination formation, the e- valuation methods of Bayesian network is put forward. In term of the uncertainty of evaluation factors, processing way of fuzzy thinking is given. At the same time, the conditional probability tables of network are made by Bayesian estimation method. And the defects produced by what experts give the conditional probability tables directly are overcome. Fina/ly, the example simu- lation shows the effectiveness of the evaluation model.