我国铜资源供需相互间影响关系研究

Research on the Mutual Influence Between Supply and Demand of Copper Resources in China

选取1953—2014年我国铜精矿产量、精炼铜消费量两项指标数据,通过构建VAR模型研究我国铜资源产量与消费量相互间影响关系。研究发现我国铜资源供需存在着4~5a的脉冲响应关系。分析后认为,当产量受自身及需求量正向冲击而上升时,应建立完善铜资源战略储备及收购机制并控制生产规模;当产量下降时应扩大铜资源的进口,投放铜资源储备以满足需求。当消费量受自身正向冲击上升时应利用国内外市场以满足需求,当因铜资源价格上升而使得消费量下滑时应通过资源储备的投放来稳定价格以带动消费;当消费量受产量正向冲击而下降时一方面应及时约束需求量的盲目增加,另一方面通过资源储备平稳价格,稳定消费量。

Selecting copper concentrate production and refined copper consumption from 1953-- 2014 as two indicators, mutual influence between output and consumption of copper resources was analyzed by building the VAR model. The study demonstrates that a stable relationship exists be- tween the two variables which lasts a long term of 4 - 5 years. When the output is raised by itself or the demand, the strategic reserve and acquisition system of copper resources should be estab- lished and improved, and the scale of production should also be controlled; when the output de- clines, the importation of copper resources should be expanded, and more copper reserve need to be put into the market. When the consumption is raised by their own positive impact, the coordina- tion of domestic and foreign markets could meet the demand; when the consumption is reduced by the rising prices, copper reserve should be released to stabilize the price and drive consumption; while the consumption is decreased by the impact of output, the timely restriction of increasing re- quirement and price stabilization by releasing reserve are beneficial to stabling consumption.