“扩权强县”与县级财政解困绩效的实证研究——基于四川省2005～2015年的面板数据

" Municipal County" and Mitigation of Fiscal Predicament of County Governments:Based on the Panel Data of Sichuan Province from 2005 to 2015

通过"扩权强县"改革实现县级财政解困,政策设计的初衷是一方面通过简政放权直接提高县级财政自给率,另一方面通过发展县域经济产生间接财政增收效应。本文利用四川省2005~2015年的面板数据,在对"汶川地震""多点多极支撑发展战略"等区域重大事件进行合理控制的基础上,通过优化双重差分法检验了"扩权强县"改革对县级财政解困的影响。实证研究发现,无论是从直接效应还是间接效应,"扩权强县"改革对县级财政解困并未产生明显促进作用。优化"扩权强县"改革应继续遵循"财权事权相匹配"原则,不断完善省以下财政分配关系,积极培育县域经济增长点,建立差异化目标分类考核机制,健全规范县级政府举债融资机制等。

Municipal County'can directly contribute to improving the county financial self-sufficiency through decentralization.This reform can also promote the county's economic development and generate indirect effect.Based on the panel data of Sichuan Province from 2005 to 2015,this paper explores the effects of the'Municipal County'reform.However,the results suggest that the reform neither promote financial predicament,nor lay the foundation by promoting the development of county economy.From dynamic point of view,the effect of reform in 2013 marked a turning point.Further analysis finds that the success of'Municipal County'is dependent on supporting reform policies and measures.