1961～2013年塔城地区气候的时空变化特征

SPATIAL-TEMPORAL VARIATION CHARACTERISTICS OF CLIMATE IN TACHENG AREA DURING 1961-2013

[目的]探究塔城地区气候的时空变化趋势及其与气象因子的关系。[方法]文章利用塔城地区7个气象站点1961~2013年的逐日气象资料,探究了气温、降水、日照时数、积温和潜在蒸散量的时空变化特征。[结果]1961~2013年塔城地区年平均气温、降水量和积温呈增加趋势,日照时数和潜在蒸散量呈减少趋势。1961~2013年塔城地区平均气温、降水量、日照时数、年潜在蒸散量、积温分别在1997、1967、1996、1989、1985年发生增加突变。平均气温、降水量、日照时数、积温存在明显的多尺度周期特征,即30年的大周期和15年的小周期变化。塔城地区平均气温的空间分布差异明显;大致呈现西高东低的空间分布特征;降雨量空间分布大致呈现西多东少的经线分布特征;日照时数大致呈现南短北长的维度地带性特征;潜在蒸散量存在自南向北逐渐减少的空间分布特征;积温的空间分布呈明显的自南向北逐渐减少的维度地带性特征。[结论]在全球气候变化下,较全面了解到新疆塔城地区气候变化趋势特征,对建立塔城地区气象预测与农业生产之间的预警,促进农业健康发展有很大的理论依据。

The spatio-temporal variation of climate in Tacheng area was analyzed by using trend analysis,Mann-Kendall test analysis and Arc GIS technology based on the daily meteorological data of seven stations from 1961 to2013.The results showed that the average annual temperature,precipitation and accumulated temperature experienced increased trend,the sunshine and the potential evapotranspiration had the decreasing trend from 1961-2013.Annual average temperature,precipitation,annual sunshine and annual potential evapotranspiration increased significantly in 1989,1985,1997,1967,1996,respectively.The average temperature,precipitation and sunshine had multi-scale cycle characteristics,namely long cycle of 30 a and short cycle of 15 a.The average temperature in Tacheng area had obvious difference,which was generally high in the West and low in the east.Precipitation had a Meridian distribution characteristic.Sunshine duration largely showed a short South and a long North latitudinal zonality charactierstics.The spatial distribution characteristics of potential evapotranspiration gradually decreased from south to north.And accumulated temperature gradually reduced obviously from south to north with a latitude characteristic.Under the global climate change,understanding the trend of climate change in Tacheng area can provide a great theoretical basis for establishing early warning and promoting agricultural health development.