论中日战略博弈的性质与作用

The Essence and Effect of the Strategic Gaming between China and Japan

中日关系的发展进入了"战略博弈"阶段。目前中日两国进行的战略博弈有三点值得关注:一是战略博弈的历史定位。在两千多年中日关系史上,19世纪中后期第一次出现双方实力对比关系逆转和双边格局重构,21世纪的今天中日间正在发生的则是双方实力对比关系的再逆转和双边格局的再重构,战略博弈是新旧格局交替的中间环节。二是战略博弈的方式。目前安倍政府采取的零和博弈方式,主要是通过不断扩大武装力量和把战略打击对象锁定为中国这两个过程逐步形成的。三是安倍政府采取的零和式博弈的不可持续性,因为它与世界大势、日本的国家利益和传统外交风格不符。长于审时度势的日本政府,应认清形势,回归理性,选择一条良性竞争的道路。

The Sino - Japanese relations have entered a stage of strategic gaming, which is characterized with the following three aspects. Firstly, as for the historical position of the strategic gaming, the first reverse of the power balance between China and Japan and reformation of the bilateral relations occurred in the mid and late nineteenth century, and the beginning of the twenty - first century marks the second reverse and reformation in the history of Sino - Japanese relations. The strategic gaming serves as an integral part of the reformation. Secondly, as for the way of the strategic gaming, the way of zero- sum gaming adopted by the Abe administration is based on the strengthening of Japan＇ s military power and focusing on China as its strategic competitor. Thirdly, the way of zero- sum gaming adopted by the Abe administration is unsustainable, due to its incompatibility with the world trend, Japan＇ s national interest and diplomatic style. The Japanese government should has a clear understanding of the current situation and walk back to the way of rationality and the benign competition.