债务问题与经济长期停滞——基于对日本经济的再认识

The Debt Issues of the Long-term Economic Stagnation:A Review of Japanese Economy

围绕发达国家经济中令人担忧的经济长期停滞问题,通过回顾日本泡沫经济崩溃后的状况,探讨民间部门存在的过剩债务成为其原因的可能性。通过简单的模型分析可知:如果过剩债务不断积累,借款人的经济活动将变得效率低下。如果过剩债务达到一定水平,借款人的低效率经营将成为永久状态,有可能带来经济长期停滞。在这种情形下,贷款人没有削减借款人过剩债务的激励因素,故如没有政府实施政策介入的话,经济停滞将持续很长时间。这暗示着,如果政府采取促进过剩债务减少的干预政策,而不仅仅是头痛医头、脚痛医脚的财政金融政策,有可能直接去除导致经济长期停滞的因素。

As for the long- term economic stagnation in the developed economy, the excess debt in the private sector may be a cause in the context of reviewing the Japanese economy since the end of bubble economy. The accumulation of excess debt lower the efficiency of the economy activities of the debtors and may make the low-efficiency and the economic stagnation permanent when the amount of the excess debt reaches a certain level. Since the creditors have little motivation for canceling or reducing the debt, the economic stagnation may take a long time without the intervention of the government, which implies that if the government adopts a direct measure to reduce the excess debt, rather than the temporary fiscal and financial policies, the factor leading to the economic stagnation may be directly eliminated.