国有石油公司原油定价基准原油选择方案与分析

Selection of Benchmark Crudes in Crude Oil Pricing of NOCs

国有石油公司正积极主动引导和推动内部市场化改革,而自产原油定价是其中的重要内容之一。国际原油定价体系基本采用"基准油+升贴水"的模式,但近年来国际主要基准原油发生了较大变化,主要表现为:布伦特原油填补了亚洲轻质低硫原油的空白,WTI原油作为市场标杆的能力正在受到质疑,迪拜原油成为目前亚洲较理想的基准油,而米纳斯油等传统远东基准油已不再适合作基准油。自1998年以来,我国自产原油定价与国际惯例一致,即采用挂靠国际市场基准原油的模式,因此确定合适的基准原油非常关键。国际原油市场的新变化已经给国内原油定价造成了一定影响,目前自产原油挂靠迪拜一种原油存在价格扭曲风险、潜在效益损失风险、内部管理矛盾风险、外部监管风险、国际原油与国内成品油市场价格不对等等多种风险。经过实证研究,提出挂靠原油改为一揽子原油(布伦特、WTI、迪拜)的建议。建议方案较现有方案优势明显,不仅可以降低单一原油价格波动风险、勘探与炼化业务效益的机制性波动风险、税务监管风险,油价形成更加透明,还可以有效提高公司总体效益。

National oil companies （NOCs） are actively guiding and promoting the internal market-oriented re- form,and the pricing of self-supplied crude oil is one of the important tasks.International crude oil pricing system basically uses ＂benchmark oil ＋ premium＂ model,but in recent years,major international benchmark crudes have changed tremendously.The changes can be summarized as follows：Brent crude is becoming new bench- mark crude of Asian light sweet crude oil ;WTI crude has been questioned as benchmark crude for its price distortion;Dubai crude is so far an ideal benchmark crude for Asia;and the traditional Far East benchmark crudes,such as Minas crude,are no longer suitable for benchmark.Since 1998,the pricing of Chinese crude oils has followed international practice which means that the crude oil pricing is linked to international benchmark crudes,so it is very crucial to choose proper benchmark crudes.Beeause new changes in the in- ternational crude oil market have brought some impact on domestic crude oil pricing,a variety of risks may exist in a single benchmark crude of Dubai including price distortion,potential loss of profits ,internal man- agement contradiction and external tax supervision,and NOCs must bear the high risk of imbalance between international crude oil prices and domestic refined product prices.Through the empirical research,this paper suggests basket （Brent,WTI and Dubai） which is superior to the existing method.It can not only reduce the price fluctuation risk of a particular crude ,the profit volatility risk between exploration and refining and the tax regulation risk to achieve transparency in crude oil pricing,but also improve the overall profits of the company.