新千年沙特什叶派问题的演进与前景

The Evolution and Prospect of Shiite Question in Saudi Arabia in the New Millennium

20世纪50年代以来,沙特什叶派政治运动经历了曲折的发展历程,什叶派问题是影响沙特国内稳定和对外关系的重要因素。进入新千年后,沙特什叶派问题的复杂化和扩大化成为明显的趋势,什叶派年轻人的崛起和激进化最值得关注。家族统治和瓦哈比派的结合与什叶派的权利诉求之间存在着无法化解的结构性矛盾。沙特什叶派的抗议活动将成为长期现象,但其规模和激烈程度不足以从根本上威胁沙特王室的统治。

Since the 1950 s,Saudi Arabia's Shiite political movement experienced toutunous development history,and Shiite question was the main factor which influenced the domestic stability and foreign relationship.After entering the new millennium,Saudi Arabia's Shiite question is becoming more chmplex and severe,and the rise of Shiite youth should be paid most attention.There is a structural conflict between the allay of family rule and Wahhabi as well as the Shiite right quest.The protest movement of Saudi Arabia's Shiites will last for a long time,but given its scale and intensity,it is not a fundamental threat to the rule of the Saudi royal family.