中国地级以上城市“五化”协调发展时空格局及影响因素

Spatiotemporal patterns and influencing factors of the "Five Modernizations" coordinated development of prefecture level and above cities in China

加快推进绿色化与工业化、城镇化、农业现代化、信息化的协同发展是全面建成小康社会和实现经济社会可持续发展的必然要求。本文以中国342个地级及以上城市为研究对象,构建"五化"协调发展水平及其效率测度指标体系,采用耦合协调模型、数据包络分析模型、面板数据回归模型,测度分析了2008和2013年各行政单元"五化"协调水平、发展效率、空间分异特征及影响因素。结果表明:(1)"五化"发展综合度、耦合度及协调度均呈上升趋势且区域差异逐渐缩小,但环渤海、长三角及珠三角等东部地区发展水平仍明显高于中西部地区。(2)"五化"协调发展空间分异呈"集群化"、"等级化"及"梯度化"特征,呈现东部>中部>西部的发展格局。(3)"五化"协调发展综合效率和规模效率较低且区域差异显著,纯技术效率较高且区域差异较小;"五化"协调发展效率呈"等级化"及"阶梯化"特征,效率值的高低与城市行政级别等级格局基本一致,且从东部向中西部地区依次降低。(4)"五化"协调规模效率较低是导致综合效率低的关键原因;"五化"协调度空间格局的形成是自然地理环境、经济社会发展差异等综合因素共同作用的结果。

Accelerating the coordinated development of greenization, industrialization, urbanization, agricultural modernization, and informationization is a key requirement for building a comprehensive well-off society and realizing the sustainable development of the economy and society. Based on data of the 342 prefecture level and above administrative units in China, this study constructed an index system for evaluating the coordination level and efficiency of the ＂Five Modernizations＂ coordinated development, and used the coupled coordination model,data envelopment model, and panel data regression analysis model to analyze the coordination level,development efficiency, spatial distribution, and influencing factors of the ＂Five Modernizations＂ coordinated development of each administrative unit in 2008 and 2013.The results show that：（1） Between 2008 and 2013,the comprehensiveness degree, coupling degree, and coordination degree of the ＂Five Modernizations＂ coordinated development increased and the regional differences gradually reduced, but the level of development of the Circum-Bohai-Sea Region, the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, and other eastern China regions was still higher than that in central and western China.（2） The spatial distribution of the coordinated development of the ＂Five Modernizations＂ showed ＂clustering,＂ ＂hierarchical,＂ and ＂stepped＂ characteristics,with an eastern central western development pattern.（3） The comprehensive efficiency and scale efficiency of the coordinated development of the ＂Five Modernizations＂ was low and the regional difference was significant; the technical efficiency was high and the regional differences was small. The coordinated development efficiency of the ＂Five Modernizations＂ showed ＂hierarchical＂ and ＂stepped＂ characteristics, with efficiencies corresponding to cities＇ administrative level and decreasing from the eastern to the central and western regions.（4） The low scale efficiency was the key factor that led to low comprehensive efficiency of the ＂Five Modernizations＂ coordinated development. The spatial pattern of the ＂Five Modernizations＂ coordination degree was the result of the differences and interactions between complex geographical environment, economic,and social development factors.