长江三角洲人口与经济空间格局演变及影响因素

Change in spatial distribution of population and economy and influencing factors in the Yangtze River Delta

人口与经济是反映区域差异的两大主要指标,其空间分布与区域差异的形成有密切关联。产业作为经济发展的基本载体,产业结构是影响人口与经济空间分布协调性的重要因素。在产业转移加快的背景下,长三角人口与经济空间分布格局也出现了一定的变化,对二者空间演变协调性研究具有重要的现实意义。本文运用重心、不一致指数及不均衡指数等方法,分析2000-2013年长三角人口与经济空间格局演变趋势及影响因素。结果表明,核心区经济增长有所放缓、边缘区经济增长加快,但人口向核心区集聚态势依然存在;基于不一致指数与不均衡指数的分析表明,与边缘区GDP快速增长导致区域GDP格局显著变化不同,边缘城市的人口增长并不显著且集中在部分城市;尽管人口与经济不一致指数分布格局呈现相对稳定的"核心—边缘"格局,但人口与经济增长不协调性增强推动了长三角人口与经济总体协调性的提高。本文尝试从市场、政府及人均GDP等因素对长三角人口与经济分布不协调的现象进行了解释。

Population and economic activities are the two main indicators of regional difference, and their spatial distribution is closely related to the formation of regional disparities. Industry is the basic carrier of economic development, and industrial structure is an important factor affecting the coordination of spatial distribution of population and economy. In the context of accelerating industrial transfer in the Yangtze River Delta, the spatial distribution patterns of population and economic activities are changing, and thus it is of great practical significance to examine the spatial coordination of change. Using the methods of gravity center analysis,inconsistency index, and imbalance index, this study analyzed the characteristics of change in the spatial distributions of population and economic activities in the Yangtze River Delta during 2000-2013, as well as the influencing factors of population and economic activity inconsistency index. The results show that with the deepening of industry transfer, the economic growth of the core area is slowing down but that of the periphery is accelerating, despite that the trend of concentration of population to the core area persists. The analysis based on the inconsistency index and the imbalance index shows that unlike the significant change in the spatial distribution of GDP with rapid growth at the periphery, population growth of the periphery is not significant and concentrated in some cities. Despite the relatively stable core-periphery pattern of the population and economic distribution inconsistency index, the incongruity of population and economic growth has promoted the overall coordination of population and economy in the Yangtze River Delta. This article attempts to explain the change of population and economic distributions from the perspective of the market, the government, and per capita GDP of the Yangtze River Delta. The results may provide a scientific basis for related strategic decision making.