成都市县域土地利用碳收支与经济发展关系研究

Relations between Land Use Carbon Budget and Economic Development at County Level in Chengdu City

基于2014年成都市县域单元土地利用遥感图像和能源消耗统计数据,论文分析了碳收支空间分布特征,通过回归模型构建,对碳收支、土地利用和经济发展协同关系进行研究。结果表明:1)成都市碳汇土地面积占比为56.97%,高于碳源用地,区域碳源/碳汇用地空间差异明显。土地利用强度为2.40~3.33,呈现"东高西低、中心最高"的空间分布特征;2)成都市净碳排放2.43×107t,呈现"东高西低、中心最高"分布特征。各县域单元碳补偿率为0.06%~11.58%,碳生态承载系数(ESC)为0.05~8.60,呈现"东低西高、中心最低"的特征;3)碳排放经济贡献系数(ECC)为0.26~1.45,呈现"中心高、周边低"的特征并且空间差异较小;4)碳排放与GDP极显著正相关(P<0.01)。ESC与土地利用强度极显著负相关(P<0.01)。ECC与土地利用强度耦合协调度均值为0.56。耦合协调度和人均GDP回归关系极显著(P<0.01),表明区域经济发展提高了碳排放经济效益和土地利用强度的耦合协调度。

Based on the land use map interoperated from remote sensing image and energy consumption data of 2014 at county level in Chengdu city, spatial distribution characteristic of the carbon budget was analyzed. Furthermore, coordinative relations among carbon budget,land use and economic development were studied by establishing regression model. The result shows： 1） The area proportion of carbon sink was 56.97%, higher than that of carbon source.There were remarkable spatial differences of carbon sources and carbon sinks in Chengdu city.Land use intensity county was between 2.40-3.33 at county level, and its spatial distribution presents characteristic of＂high in the east and low in the west, while the highest in the middle＂. 2） Net carbon emission was 2.43×107t, with the characteristic of＂high in the east and low in the west, while the highest in the middle＂. Carbon compensation ratio and ecological support coefficient of each county were between 0.06%-11.58% and 0.05-8.60, respectively,and both presented the characteristic of＂low in the east and hig in the west, while the lowest in the middle＂. 3） Economy contribution coefficient was between 0.26-1.45, and it demonstrated a trend from high in the center to low in the peripheral area. 4） Net carbon emission was significantly positively correlated with GDP（P〈0.01）. ESC was significantly negatively correlated with land use intensity（P〈0.01）. The coupling coordination degree of economy contribution coefficient and land use intensity at each level was 0.56. According to the established regression model, we found that economic development and coupling coordination degree have significant correlation（P〈0.01）.