基于ANP-Shapley值的PPP模式风险分担策略研究

Risk Allocation Strategies for PPP Projects Based on ANP-Shapley Model

PPP模式因为较好地发挥了政府部门和私营部门的各自优势,提高了项目的建设和运营效率,在近年来得到了迅速的推广。但PPP项目风险复杂,风险分担方案的制定一直是PPP项目合同签订过程中公私双方争论的焦点。本文首先运用合作博弈理论构建公共部门和私营部门的风险分担模型,进而利用网络层次分析法引入项目属性、合作机制、风险属性、风险控制和损失承受五类因素对分担比例的影响,对合作博弈模型的解进行修正。在此基础上以某污水处理厂PPP项目为例对模型进行应用,求得最优风险分担比例。本文不仅为相关研究提供了新视角,也为PPP项目实践中风险分担方案的制定提供了决策依据。

PPP model has been popularized in recent years because it has well brought into play their respective advantages of government departments and private sectors, and improved the construction and operation efficiency of the project. However, the risk of PPP project is very complex and the formulation of risk sharing scheme has been at the center of the dispute in making agreement. Firstly, in this paper the risk sharing model is constructed by using cooperative game theory. Then the influence of project properties, cooperation mechanism, risk attributes, risk management and loss bearing on the proportion of sharing is introduced by Analytic Network Process, and the solution of cooperative game model is modified. On this basis, this paper takes the PPP project ofa wastewater treatment plant as an example, and obtains the optimal risk sharing ratio. This paper not only provides a new perspective for the relevant research, but also provides a decision basis for the formulation of risk sharing scheme in PPP project practice.