地方财政配置能力对农村剩余劳动力转移的门槛效应研究

Research on Threshold Effect of Local Fiscal Allocation Ability on Transfer of Redundant Rural Labor Force

在以政府为主导的城镇化模式中,地方政府的财政配置能力及其公共产品供给能力对农村剩余劳动力的转移就业至关重要。本文采用1998-2014年的省际面板数据,实证检验了地方财政配置能力对农村剩余劳动力转移的门槛效应。实证检验结果表明,地方财政配置能力对农村剩余劳动力转移的影响显著存在于城乡实际收入差距和非农产业占比的"双门槛效应",二者存在显著的非线性关系。随着城乡实际收入差距的不断扩大,地方财政配置能力对农村剩余劳动力转移的正向影响效应呈逐渐递减趋势。而随着非农产业占比不断提高,地方财政配置能力对农村剩余劳动力转移的正向影响效应呈逐渐递增趋势。

In the government-led urbanization model, the local government＇s financial allocation capacity and its ability to supply public goods for redundant rural labor force is essential. Using the provincial panel data from 1998 to 2014, this paper tests the threshold effect of the allocation of local finance on transfer of redundant rural labor force. The empirical test results show that the effect of local fiscal disposition on transfer of redundant rural labor force is significant in the two-threshold effect of urban-rural real income disparity and non-agricultural proportion, and there exists a significant nonlinear relationship. With the widening income gap between urban and rural areas, the positive effect of local fiscal disposition on transfer of redundant rural labor force is gradually decreasing. With the increasing proportion of non-agricultural industries, the positive effects of local fiscal disposition on transfer of redundant rural labor force are gradually increasing.