产油国减产效果滞后 国际油价曙光渐显

Hysteretic Effect of OPEC Oil Output Cut Heralding New Dawn of Oil Price

2017年欧佩克启动减产协议以来,国际石油供大于求的基本面有所改善,石油市场进入再平衡阶段。5月25日欧佩克达成延长减产协议期限9个月后,国际原油价格反而暴跌。本文从减产执行情况、市场原油跨期价差和跨区价差检验减产的效果,认为减产影响效果滞后。在短期内减产影响力大于美国页岩油增产的情况下,通过期货市场资金盘面持仓变化,认为国际原油价格下半年有望走强。

Since the start of OPEC production reduction agreement in 2017, the fundamentals of the oversupplied international oil market have been improved, and oil market has entered into rebalancing stage. However, on the contrary, on May 25th, nine monthes after OPEC achieved extending the deadline of production reduction agreement, international oil price dropped sharply again. The article is to exame the result of production reduction from production reduction agreement compliance, market oil inter-period spread and cross-region spread, believing that the effect of production reduction is delayed. In the situation that the influence of production reduction is greater than that of U.S. shale oil increase in production in a short term, based on the changes of funds and positions in oil futures market, the author considers that international oil price will likely turn stronger in the second half of this year.