非缴费型养老金对消费的影响——来自断点回归的证据

The Impact of Non-contributory Pension on Household Consumption:Evidence from Regression Discontinuity Design

非缴费型养老金是发展中国家的重要社会保障工具,中国近年来推行的针对农村和城镇居民的养老保险带有一定的非缴费特性。本文根据新型农村社会养老保险制度设计中60岁以上的居民可以免费领取基本养老金这一规定,设计断点回归,利用中国家庭动态调查2012年数据考察了非缴费型养老金对居民消费的影响。实证结果表明,新农保养老金的领取,使家庭非耐久品消费显著上升了15.9%。非耐久品消费的上升,主要来自于食物支出的上升。家庭消费的变化具有强烈的异质性。在老年人独居家庭中,食物支出的上升最为明显;三代人同住的家庭,则呈现教育支出的显著上升。

Non-contributory pension is an important social security tool in developing countries. China＇ s pension program rolled out in recent years for rural and urban residents has some typical non-contributory features. We applied regression discontinuity design （ hereafter RDD） to identify the impact of pension benefit receipt on household consumption using the eligible rule in New Rural Pension Scheme that all residents over 60years old can receive basic pension freely. RDD results with data from China Family Panel Studies showed that receiving basic pension increased expenditure on non-durable goods by 15.9%. The rise mainly came from food consumption. The pension effect was heterogeneous by family types. Food consumption rose most significantly in families elderly people living alone, while education consumption rose most significantly in families three generations living together.