2000年以来我国人口生育意愿研究综述--基于数量、性别和时间三个维度

Researches on Willingness of Giving Birth in China since 2000--Based on Three Dimensions of Number, Gender and Time

从数量、性别和时间三个维度,在空间上分为全国性调查研究和地方性调查研究两大模块,在时间上按照由远及近的顺序,对2000年以来我国人口生育意愿的相关研究进行梳理后发现:在意愿生育数量上,中国人群的意愿生育数量在1.6—1.9个的范围上下波动,大城市、东部地区和中部地区理想子女数的均值依次递增;在意愿生育性别上,性别数量双偏好(儿女双全)和无性别偏好逐渐成为主流,但各地区之间存在差异;在意愿生育时间上,女性人口的理想生育年龄较为稳定,实际生育年龄则呈增长趋势。为满足具有长远意义的对比分析需要,可构建系统性、标准化的生育意愿测量工具,并进行纵向追踪性的大型调查。

This review on willingness of giving birth in China since 2000 is based on three dimensions： number, gender and time. The literatures are divided into national research and local investigation in space, and sorted in chronological order. The study found that the desired child number of the Chinese people changed between 1.6 and 1.9, and the ideal number of child in large cities, eastern and central regions increased in turn. In terms of the desired gender, the preference of both sons and danghters and no preference have become the mainstream, and there are differences among different regions. The ideal fertility ages of women were relatively stable, and the actual fertility age showed an increasing trend. To meet the needs of long-term comparative analysis, systematic and standardized measurement of reproduction intention can be built, and large and longitudinal survey can be conducted.