交通路网灾害风险系统影响分析

Disaster Risk Analysis of Transportation Infrastructure System

当交通设施因自然灾害、恶劣气候及严重交通事故服务中断时 ,会引起用户出行成本的增加 ,并造成部分出行取消。本文根据用户成本的构成 ,建立交通需求及分配模型进行单位用户成本的评估。由用户成本及补救工作成本构成的灾害损失即灾害后果是道路关闭时间、其他绕行路线可用性及补救措施的函数。同时本文通过灾害发生概率及相应后果对灾害进行了风险评估 ,并建议了减少道路关闭概率或相应损失的常见方法 。

When natural disaster,atrocious weather or accident happens,transportation system may close down and result in travel cost increasing or some travel being called off Depending on the structure of user cost and the traffic demanding and distribution model,the estimation method of the unit user cost is proposed in the paper The sum of the user cost and the remedy cost constitute the disaster loss or consequence,which is the function of closing time,usability of other circuitous road and the remedy measure Depending on the probability of disaster happening and according consequence,the disaster risk is assessed In the meantime,several common anti?disaster measures are suggested,which can deduce the road closing probability or according loss Depending on the cost?benefit analysis of different anti?disaster measures,the anti?disaster plan can be decided