基于ArcGIS的黄河府谷至吴堡未控区洪水模拟

Study on Flood Simulation Based on the ArcGIS in Uncontrolled Area from Fugu to Wubao of the Middle Yellow River

选取黄河中游清凉寺沟和佳芦河为典型支流,采用1980—2013年的历史洪水资料,基于霍顿下渗能力曲线建立产汇流模型,率定出产汇流参数,供府谷—吴堡未控区借鉴使用;基于ArcGIS将府谷—吴堡未控区划分为20个单元,分析各单元马斯京根法参数,对该未控区历史典型洪水进行模拟。结果表明:模拟效果较好,平均峰现误差为-0.4 h,洪峰误差均在预报允许范围之内,确定性系数为0.66。

The Qingliangsigou and Jialu River in the middle Yellow River were selected as the typical tributaries,historical flood data in 1980-2013 were used,the method of Horton infiltration capacity curve was used to calculate the stable infiltration rate,a model of runoff yield and conflux was established and the parameters were calibrated and applied to the uncontrolled area from Fugu to Wubao. The study are-a was divided into twenty units based on the ArcGIS,Muskingum method parameters in each unit were calibrated and the typical floods of un-controlled area from Fugu to Wubao were simulated. The results show that the simulation effects are good： the average error of peak time is -0.4 h ,the error of peak discharge is in the forecasting allowable range and the certainty coefficient is 0.66.