基于GNSS实时监测的土石坝表面变形时序分析

Time Sequence Analysis of Earth-Rock Dam′s Surface Deformation Based on GNSS Real-Time Monitoring System

利用茜坑水库主坝GNSS自动化监测系统的实测数据,采用回归分析的方法进行坝体表面变形分析,建立包含水位和时间的数学模型,对观测墩位移变化进行预测分析,并结合实测值对预测值进行验证。结果表明,茜坑水库主坝上下游方向的变形主要由水库水位变化引起,竖直方向的变形主要由时效因素引起。通过建立水库上下游方向变形随水位变化的模型,结合实测数据修正,实现了有效的变形预测,预测结果可应用于变形监测系统的自动预警。GNSS自动化监测系统获取的长期、连续的变形数据,为分析土石坝表面变形的机制提供了数据支撑。

According to the measured data of Xikeng Reservoir main dam’ s GNSS automation monitoring system, the paper had analyzed the dam surface deformation using regression analysis method, and established a mathematical deformation model of water level and time. Based on this model, the deformation prediction analysis w,as carried out, and the predicted value was verified by the measured value. The results show that, the defor^nation of Xikeng Reser^^oir main dam in upstream and downstream directions is mainly caused by the change of water lev-el and the deformation of the vertical direction is mainly caused by the aging factors. The effective defor^nation prediction can be made by the model with the correction of measured data,and the prediction result can be applied to the automatic early warning of monitoring system.GNSS automatic monitoring system is of great significance to the analysis of the mechanism of earth-rock dam by obtaining long-term deforma-tion data.