PPP模式下我国无居民海岛开发的风险评价

Risk Assessment of China's Non-resident Islands Exploitation on PPP Model

我国拥有数量众多的无居民海岛,风险评价和风险管理工作是关系到PPP模式能够引入无居民海岛开发领域并成功运行的关键问题。本文根据无居民海岛开发项目的特性和PPP模式的特殊性,建立了PPP模式下,我国无居民海岛开发的风险指标体系,并运用基于三角模糊数的方法确定了相应的风险权重;然后利用基于模糊推理的风险评估方法,结合青岛市牛岛这一待开发无居民海岛的案例,对PPP模式下我国无居民海岛开发的风险量级做了评估并进行了排序,并提出了风险应对措施。

China has a huge number of non-resident islands which should be exploited in a new model and suitable way to be able to play a crucial role in China＇s marine economy development. Risk management is a key work of the whole PPP project in non-resident islands exploitation. Firstly, considering the literature and practical cases, a risk index system of PPP model using on non-resident islands exploitation in China which contained 26 risk factors is built as a result of risk identification. Every risk factor in this system has its own weight calculating by a triangular fuzzy number based method. Secondly, use fuzzy risk assessment methods to evaluate and prioritize the magnitude of all risk factors. An application example is also given to illustrate the usage of risk assessment method proposed before. And this paper also brings forward several targeted response measure to deal with the assessed significant risk factors.