基于肉鸡品种差异视角的我国鸡肉消费市场预测

Forecast of Chicken Consumption Market in China Based on Broiler Breed Difference

研究利用2006~2015年FAOSTAT等数据,基于肉鸡品种差异的角度,考虑到收入、户内外消费差异以及人口老龄化的影响,对未来肉鸡消费市场的规模与结构进行预测。结果表明,到2030年,鸡肉的消费仍将平稳增长,但速度将趋于缓慢;黄羽肉鸡和白羽肉鸡的人均消费量将分别达到5.23 kg、5.34 kg;鸡肉消费结构有所优化,高品质的黄羽肉鸡消费比重上升,低品质的白羽肉鸡消费比重下降。经人口结构修正后,我国鸡肉人均消费量将达到11.22 kg。

Based on the statistics of FAOSTAT from 2006 to 2015 and so on, this paper forecasted the size and structure of chicken consumption market from 2015 to 2030 by considering the impact from income increase, the difference in consumption at home and away from home, as well as aging of population based on the difference in broiler breeds. The results showed that, by 2030, the consumption of chicken would continue to grow steadily, but the speed would decelerate; Yellow-feather broiler and white-feather broiler per capita consumption would be 5.23 kg and 5.34 kg respectively; Chicken consumption structure would be optimized for the proportion, and yellow-feather broiler in consumption would increase and the proportion of white-feather broiler would decrease. China＇s chicken consumption per capita would reach 11.22 kg adjusted by demographic structure change.