村级互助资金与扶贫贴息贷款的动态减贫效果比较——以宁夏为例

A Comparative Study on the Dynamic Effects of the Mutual Funds and Subsidized Loans on Poverty Alleviation:Based on the Survey Data in Ningxia

基于《宁夏调查数据》和《宁夏统计年鉴》的相关数据,运用世界银行Povcal软件测度宁夏农村家庭的贫困状况,结合互助资金和扶贫贴息贷款数据,构建VAR模型,比较村级互助资金和扶贫贴息贷款对贫困发生率、贫困深度和贫困强度的影响。通过对比脉冲响应图发现,互助资金比扶贫贴息贷款在短期更有利于降低贫困发生率、贫困深度和贫困强度。但从长期看,这两者的动态减贫效果都需进一步观察。最后,进一步运用宁夏五个市的市级层面的互助资金和扶贫贴息贷款数据,构建面板VAR模型,比较互助资金与扶贫贴息贷款对农户人均纯收入的影响,结果再次验证了上述结论。

This paper measures poverty levels of rural families in Ningxia, using povcal software provided by World Bank. The relevant data includes the first band data investigated in Ningxia and statistical yearbook data of Ningxia. A VAR（ Vector autoregression, VAR） model was built to compare the dynamic effects of mutual funds and subsidized loans on the occurrence rate of poverty, the depth of poverty and the intensity of poverty. The results showed that the mutual fundsare more advantageous to reduce the incidence of poverty than subsidized loansin the short term. But the dynamic effects of both methods need further observationin the long run. The above results were confirmed by panel VAR modelusing city municipal level data in the following part of this paper.