中国碳排放强度重心演变及驱动因素分析

Analysis on the Evolution and Driving Factors of China's Carbon Emission Intensity

利用经济重心模型对中国碳排放强度的整体演变进行分析,并基于KAYA恒等式构建碳排放强度重心演变驱动因素模型,对中国碳排放强度重心演变的影响因素进行分析。研究发现,中国省级区域碳排放强度整体呈现先升后降态势;受区域经济协调发展战略影响,中国省级区域碳排放强度重心、碳排放重心和经济重心演进呈现经度向西、纬度基本不变态势;在区域碳排放强度重心演变的影响因素中,能源消费强度是主要推动因素,经济增长是主要的制约因素,区域经济的协调发展和能源消费结构与碳排放强度关系随区域不同而不同。据此,提出强化能源强度约束,推动经济节能、低碳发展;因地制宜制定区域碳排放强度控制策略;发展节能低碳技术及增加非化石能源的消费比重三方面建议,以更好完成中国碳排放强度目标。

Based on the economic gravity model, this paper analyzes the overall evolution of China＇ s carbon emission intensity, and based on the KAYA identity, the driving factors model of carbon emission intensity center is constructed to analyze the factors that influence the evolution of carbon emission intensity. The study found that Chinese provincial carbon emission intensity as a whole shows first up and then down situation. Affected by the coordinated development strategy of regional economy, the evolution of China＇ s provincial carbon emission intensity gravity, carbon emission gravity and economic center gravity shows Longitude to the West developing and Latitude unchanged situation. Of all the influence factors of the evolution of regional carbon emission intensity, the energy consumption intensity is the main promoting factor, the economic growth is the main restricting factors, the coordinated development of regional economy and the relationship with the structure of energy consumption and carbon emission intensity vary with different regions. According to this, this paper proposes to strengthen energy intensity constraints and promote the energy saving, low - carbon development of regional economic, to set up the control strategies of carbon emission intensity in different regions according to local conditions ; to develop energy saving low carbon technology and increase the proportion of non fossil energy consumption, for the better achievement of the goal of China＇ s carbon emission intensity.