南京市臭氧短期暴露人群急性健康效应研究

Acute health impacts of ozone exposure on daily mortality in Nanjing

目的探讨南京市臭氧(O3)短期暴露对人群的急性健康影响。方法整理2013—2015年南京市气象数据、O_3与PM(2.5)监测数据及人群非意外死亡等数据,采用Possion分布广义相加模型(GAM),分析O3短期暴露水平(O3每日最大1h浓度,O_(3 1h-max))与人群非意外死亡风险之间的相关性。结果单污染物模型中,O3 1h-max多日移动平均滞后效应强于单日滞后,且在lag03时最强。O_(3 1h-max)浓度(lag03)每升高10μg/m^3,人群非意外死亡风险增加0.79%(95%CI:0.50%~1.09%),心血管疾病死亡风险增加1.25%(95%CI:0.78%~1.72%);其中女性非意外死亡风险增加0.97%(95%CI:0.53%~1.41%),男性增加0.66%(95%CI:0.27%~1.05%);≥65岁人群增加0.90%(95%CI:0.57%~1.23%)。双污染物模型中,调整了共存污染物PM2.5的影响后,非意外死亡风险和心血管疾病死亡风险分别降至0.42%(95%CI:0.22%~0.63%)、1.19%(95%CI:0.72%~1.67%)。结论南京市O3短期暴露能增加人群非意外死亡、心血管系统疾病死亡的风险,女性和65岁以上老年人为暴露的敏感人群。

Objective To explore the associations between non-accidental mortality and short-term ambient ozone exposure in Nanjing. Methods Meteorological data, daily air pollution （include O3 and PM2.5） and daily mortality information from 2013 to 2015 in Nanjing were collected. A generalized additive model with Possion distribution was used to analyze the relationship between total non-accidental mortality risk and short -term ozone exposure （ O3 1h-max）. Results In the single-pollutant model, multiday exposures had larger effects than single-day exposure,while maximal effect was achieved at lagO3. With the increase of 10 μg/m3 ozone （1 h maximum） at lagO3, the estimated non-accidental mortality risk increased 0.79% （95 % CI： 0. 50 %- 1.09 % ）, while cardiovascular mortality risk increased 1.25 ~ （95 %CI：0.78 - 1.72 % ） ; among which the mortalities of females, males and people older than 65 years old increased 0. 97 % （ 95 ~ CI： 0. 53 % - 1.41 % ）, 0. 66 % （ 95 % CI： 0. 27 % - 1.05%） and 0.90%（95%CI：0.57G- 1.23%）. In the double-pollutant model, the total non-accidental mortality and cardio- vascular mortality outcome reduced to 0.42%（95%CI：0.22%-0.63%） and 1.19%（95%0CI：0. 72%- 1.67%）, respectively, upon adjustment for PM2. s. Conclusion Short-term O3 exposure can increase non-accidental mortality and cardiovascular mor- tality risk female and the people older than 65 years old are sensitive groups of exposure.