内蒙古中部地区总辐射日曝辐量计算方法研究

ESTIMATION OF DAILY SOLAR RADIATION IN CENTRAL INNER MONGOLIA

在分析国内外太阳辐射模拟方法的基础上,细化模型的时间应用尺度,建立用日照时数直接计算总辐射日曝辐量的模拟方法,与现有方法相比优点是计算量少、模拟误差小。对内蒙古中部地区5个代表站点的模拟值与实测值进行统计检验,结果表明:各站Nash-Sutcliffe方程、平均偏差、归一化均方根偏差的平均值在12个月的变化范围分别是0.64~0.86、-0.74~0.08 MJ/(m^2·d)、11.98%~17.84%,多数月份模拟值比实测值偏高,3~11月份比1~2月份、12月份模拟效果好;在作物生长月份(5~9月份),模拟值与实测值之间的相关性极显著,决定系数为0.78~0.95,拟合效果优于联合国粮食及农业组织(FAO)推荐的Angstr?m-Prescott方程系数(a=0.25,b=0.50)。

Based on analyzing current calculation models of solar radiation home and aboard, a novel model which is more efficient and more accurate was built to simulate daily solar radiation in central Inner Mongolia after the time scale of the model being shortened. Comparison analysis is carried out through several statistics indicators. During 12 months, the new model＇ s average value range of Nash-Sutcliffe equation, mean bias error, normalizedmean squared error of five stations was 0.64-0.86, -0.74-0.08 MJ/（m2· d）, 11.98%- 17.84% respectively. The simulated values were higher than observed values in most months. In general, the model performed better in March to November than the others. During crop growing seasons, May to September, the results showed that the simulated solar radiations had significantly related to the observed values （R2=0.78-0.95） , and more accurate than FAO recommended coefficients in Angstrom- Prescottequation （a=0.25, b=0.50）.