事前风险、审计师行为与财务舞弊

Ex ante Risk,Auditor Behaviors and Financial Fraud

目前关于企业风险与审计师行为的研究大多是基于事后风险的角度,对企业的事前风险关注度不高。本文以2003~2015年A股非金融上市公司为样本,通过财务造假预测Mscore模型、Fscore模型和Cscore模型计算企业的事前财务造假风险,实证检验了企业事前风险对审计师行为的影响,研究发现:公司事前风险与非标审计意见、会计师事务所变更和审计费用均显著正相关。此外,事前风险和事后的舞弊被查显著正相关,进一步佐证事前风险对审计师行为影响的有效性;相对于Mscore模型和Fscore模型,Cscore模型估计的事前风险对审计师的行为的影响具有最好的解释力。本文的研究结论不仅表明事前风险越高,审计师的行为越稳健,也将对审计师、投资者和监管机构有一定的启示意义。

Most studies of corporate risk and auditor behavior are from the perspective of ex post risk, while ignoring the ex ante risk. Based on the data of Chinese A-share listed non-financial firms from 2003 to 2015, this paper in- vestigates the impact of ex ante risk as calculated by Mscore model, Fseore model and Cscore model on ex ante fi- nancial fraud. The results show that ex ante risk is positively correlated with modified audit opinions, auditor chan- ges and audit fees. In addition, ex ante risk is also positively correlated with ex post financial fraud, which further proves the impact of ex ante risk on auditor behaviors. Compared with Mscore model and Fscore model, Cscore model has the best explanatory power on auditor behaviors. In general, these results indicate that the ex ante risk leads to auditor conservatism, and also provide reference to auditors, investors and regulators.