湖北省农户家庭粮食经营及供给能力动态跟踪

Dynamic tracking of household grain production,management,and supply capacity in Hubei Province

农户是最基本的经营决策单元和粮食生产单位,其粮食生产经营行为及粮食供给能力直接关系国家粮食安全。以湖北省典型区域农户进行的3期微观调查数据为基础,分析近10年农户家庭粮食作物经营行为及粮食安全供应能力的动态变化趋势,探讨农户层面下的粮食安全问题。结果表明:1)重点开发区和粮食主产区农户家庭粮作经营参与度较高,农户家庭农业种植以水稻为主,未出现明显的"非粮化"趋势,且经营规模越大,农户粮作经营的积极性也越高。2)农户粮作经营的绝对收益在提升,但相对效益在减弱。重点开发区粮作经营的绝对和相对效益较低,而粮食主产区粮作经营则持续保持着对于经作经营和非农经营的比较优势,但差距在缩小。且均存在着经营规模越大,农户粮作经营的比较效益越高的特征。3)重点开发区和粮食主产区在粮食安全生产供给能力时空变化上存在明显差异。重点开发区农户家庭粮食安全生产能力在降低,而粮食主产区则保持相对平稳,两区农户家庭层面粮食供给能力的差距在日益拉大,粮食主产区在区域粮食安全中的作用日益凸显。粮食安全关乎国计民生,建议引导土地流向种田大户以发挥规模效益,加强粮食主产区粮作经营政策扶持力度,在稳固粮食主产区粮作经营能力的同时,实现农户家庭粮作经营规模化和粮食供给稳定增长的有机统一。

Rural households are the fundamental units of agricultural management.Households＇ grain production and management behaviors and grain supply capacity are directly related to the national grain security.Based on a survey data of Wuhan,Jingmen,Xiaogan in 2005,2013 and 2015,this paper analyzed the dynamic changes of grain production and supply behaviors of rural households.Results show that：1） the rate of households who participated in grain management stands at a higher level in both the Key Developed Zones and the Grain Production Zones,mainly for rice production,and there is no obvious ＂non-grain＂ trend in households＇ crop selection.In addition,the bigger the scale of operation,the higher the households＇ enthusiasm in crop management;2） absolute income from grain production is increasing,but the relative benefit is weakening.The absolute and relative benefits of grain production in the Key Development Zones are still low,while the grain production in the Main Grain Producing Zones still maintains a comparative advantage for both agricultural operations and non-agricultural operations.However,the gap is narrowing and the bigger the scale of operation,the higher the benefit from households＇ grain management;and 3） there are significant differences in the temporal and spatial variations of grain production capacities in the Key Development Zones and the Grain Production Zones.The capacity of grain production in the Key Developed Zone was decreased,while the capacity of grain production in the Grain Production Zones remained relatively stable with an increasing gap between them.The role of Grain Production Zones in the grain security has become increasingly prominent.In summary,to realize the organic unity of the scale of household grain production and the steady growth of grain supply,this paper suggest that the cultivated land should be transferred to large-scale households to achieve economies of scale and policy support of grain production in the Grain Production Zones are necessary.