含设备利用率因子的配电网滚动规划后评价模型

A Coefficient of Equipment Utilization Based Post-Evaluation Model for Distribution System Rolling Planning

提出了一种含设备利用率因子的配电网滚动规划后评价模型,它包括了电源规划、电力需求预测、电网规划执行情况、投资执行情况、电网发展水平、设备利用率6个一级指标和相关26个二级指标。该模型采用层次分析法确定了各层次指标权重,并考虑了设备利用率影响系数对量化评价值的反馈修正作用。采用该模型对贵州某地区"十二五"配电网滚动规划进行了分析,验证了该模型的有效性和可行性,或可为相关配电网规划和投资决策研究提供量化指标和评价模型参考。

This paper proposes a coefficient of equipment utilization based post-evaluation model fur distribution system rolling planning which includes six primary indicators, namely generation expansion planning, electrical power demand fore- casting, implementation of distribution system planning, execu- tion of investment, development of power grid and equipment utilization and also eontains twenty-six relative sub-indicators. The weights of indexes at the different level in this model could be determined by utilizing analytic hierarchy process. Mean- while the feedback influence from equipment utilization might be acquired through the introduction of an equipment utilization coefficient. A ease study has been carried on the 5-year rolling planning of distribution system for a 1-city and 8-county region in Guizhou which verifies the validity and feasibility of the proposed model. It would provide a valuable reference about quantitative indicator and post-evaluation nmdel for the studies inw）lving distribution network planning and investment deei- sion-making.