气候变化背景下藏药黑果枸杞的潜在适生区分布预测

Prediction of the potential distribution of Tibetan medicinal Lycium ruthenicum in context of climate change

在气候变化背景下预测藏药黑果枸杞在当代及未来的适生区分布格局,为其资源可持续利用及GAP规范化种植提供参考。基于黑果枸杞149个分布数据及当代(1950—2000年)和未来(21世纪20—80年代)的气候数据,同时考虑3种温室气体排放场景,应用最大墒模型(Maxent)和地理信息系统(Arc GIS 10.3.1)软件,定量地预测了黑果枸杞在我国的潜在适生区及其适生等级。发现:(1)黑果枸杞的当代适生区主要分布于我国新疆、青海、甘肃、内蒙古、宁夏,陕西、山西、西藏境内也发现分布区;(2)黑果枸杞当代适生区总面积为284.506 949×104km2,占中国国土面积的29.6%;(3)相对稳定区域为总适生区的25.2%;(4)气候变化背景下,相较于当代,其在21世纪20—80年代的适生区总面积均有不同程度的减少,但是中度适生区又有不同程度的增加。气候变化对黑果枸杞适生区总面积及生境适宜度均会产生不同程度的双面影响。通过以气候变化为主导因素的黑果枸杞潜在适生区分布预测,可为今后科学的保护、开发与利用黑果枸杞资源提供战略性指导。

To predict the suitable distribution patterns of Lycium ruthenicum in the present and future under the background of cli- mate change, and provide reference for the resources sustainable utilization and GAP standardized planting. The software of Maxent and ArcGis was used to predict the potential suitable regions and grades of L. ruthenicum in China based on the 149 distribution informa- tion, climate data of contemporary （1950-2000） and future （20-80 decade of 21 century）, and considering of three greenhouse gaseous emission scenario. The results showed that：the suitable distribution regions of L. ruthenicum are mainly concentrated in Xin- jiang, Qinghai, Gansu, Neimenggu, and Ningxia province in present. In addition, Shaanxi, Shanxi and Xizang are also distribution regions. The suitable distribution area of L. ruthenicum is 284. 506 949 ×10^4 km2, accounted for 29. 6% of the land area of China. The relatively stable area of the suitable regions accounted for 25.2% of the total suitable region area. Under the background of climate change, compared with contemporary, the total area of suitable region is reducing and moderately suitable area is increasing at different degree at the 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, 80 decade of 21 century. Climate change both can change the total area of suitable regions and habitat suitability of L. ruthenicum. It could provide a strategic guidance for protection, development and utilization of L. ruthenicum though the prediction of potential suitable regions distribution of L. ruthenicum based on the mainly factor of climate change.