中国区域经济社会发展阶段识别及协调性研究

Classification Methods and Coordination of Regional Socio-economic Development in China

按照区域发展的Logistic理论模型特征,探索性地将区域发展转型过程划分为缓慢积累期、加速成长期、高速发展期和平稳成熟期4个阶段。选取人口-社会结构、经济增长、产业结构和就业结构4项经济社会发展形态,构建区域经济社会发展阶段划分的指标体系和综合度指数,并开展中国省域尺度的区域经济社会发展阶段识别与评价。结果表明:我国区域经济社会发展演化过程中,4项形态发展不具有同步性,表现为产业结构转型程度高、发展阶段超前,而人口-社会结构、经济增长和就业结构相对落后;2000—2015年我国省域区域经济社会发展综合度不断提高,且呈现出明显的空间地域分异特征,基本形成了东部发达地区发展程度高、综合度指数高的高值区,东北地区、渝鄂中西部核心区以及山西、陕西、内蒙古和宁夏能源富集区中等发展阶段、综合度指数中等的中值区,其他区域发展阶段低、综合度指数低的低值区的空间格局。

Based on the regional socio-economic development＇ s logistic theoretic model, this paper divides the process of regional development into four stages： slow accumulation period, accelerated growth period, high- speed development period, and smooth maturity period. In this article, four transition forms are selected, including population-social structure, economic growth, industrial structure and employment structure, and then an evalua- tion index system and index analysis model are built. At last, those methods are empirically tested at provincial-lev- el of China. In the evaluative process of China＇ s regional development and transformation, different socio-economic development forms does not have the synchronization pattern, which shows, compared with population-social devel- opment, economic growth and employment restructuring development, industrial structure has a high degree. Both regional development form differentiation and comprehensive development degree are increasing at China＇ s provin- cial level during the period. They also presents obvious spatial differentiation characteristics, formed the eastern de- veloped areas-high transformation stage-high comprehensive transformation degree-high value areas; northeast area, Shanxi and Shaanxi Meng Ning energy accumulation area, the core area of Chongqing and Hubei in central and western-middle transformation stage-middle comprehensive transformation degree-median value areas; other areas- low transformation stage-low comprehensive transformation degree-low value areas.